PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is war likely with Iran? Consequences for EK?
Old 12th Mar 2012, 15:01
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falconeasydriver
 
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Argument, and counter argument, the circle is never ending, both in terms of the rhetoric and the violence, and yet none of the key points relating to the issues of the Middle East have even been discussed. The simple reason is because its actually far more complicated and has far more scope than we can hope to discuss.
Certainly if you do a little bit of digging, you will find the many of the neighbouring states to Israel are complicit in the confinement/arming/goading of the Palestinians, and yet in public they declare in one loud voice they support a two state solution.
The Palestinians for their part have as has been stated "never fail to miss an opportunity", Arafat had his chance but then why have peace when conflict is sooo much more profitable? Hamas for their part think exactly the same way, all they need to do is continue the "resistance" to recieve a good chunk of support from Damascus, Tehran and North London, all the while poisoning the minds of 4 year old "maytrs" with suicide dolls and anti-semitic kids TV shows. Its good business with a ready supply of young maleable talent for the future.
Israel for the most part is more sanguine, if not a bit divided, but then again for the IDF and Elbit, its good business, export orders flow in for new weapon sytems, and as long as the Jewish Lobby in the US shout louder, things will continue in the usual fashion.
Uncle Sam for its part has bled a lot of blood and treasure, and yet STILL fails to understand that this will never be a battle for right or wrong, appeasement or determination, it is in fact merely a reflection of its own deeply flawed foreign policy.
The way forward is anyones guess, war with Iran is a possibility, but a remote one IMHO simply because the Iranians don't want war, they want to play brinkmanship, and they are far more astute than Sadam ever was.
Israel is the wild card of course, but again they will lose plenty of tacit support from other gulf states if they act unilaterally, of course the current Israeli government is particularly beligerant so could just as well cut of its nose to spite itself.
Whatever the outcome, there is fault on all sides, uncle Sam is certainly not the value driven country it once was (in the 40's-early 50's) as it has become a haven for corporate corruption and special interests. Iran for its part is playing a dangerous game, a game it won't win in its present form, as usual however it will be the innocent Mr and Mrs average on the street who will suffer, just as their counterpart lower socio-economic groups in the US and UK do today as they make up the greatest percentage of boots on the ground in the various regional on-going military misadventures.
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