PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is war likely with Iran? Consequences for EK?
Old 6th Mar 2012, 21:41
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Dani
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Switzerland, Singapore
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What will happen when (not if) the Iranians have their nuclear weapons? Will they attack Israel?

Do you really think so? Starting a nuclear attack would mean the immediate and complete retaliation and thus destruction of most Iranian cities, military installations and industrial centres. I don't know if you are aware that Israel has nuclear armed submarines, so Iran cannot destroy Israel's nuclear capability by a simple attack with long rang missiles.

There is a simple law in modern strategy, it says that not one country with nuclear weapons has ever attacked another (with nuclear weapons). This is not a lucky circumstance (although luck belonged to it during the cold war), this is pure logic. Since nuclear attacks lead to the nuclear holocaust of all parties involved (plus others).

So, the question runs down on a simple one: Are the religious and political leaders crazy enough to accept their own death to erase Israel? I think not. They are no suicide bombers. They just have a few of them.

So there is no danger to be expected from Iran.

The bigger question is what danger erupts from a preemptive strike from Israel and/or USA to try to cut down the nuclear capabilies of Iran. Well, this means (conventional) war for sure. Iran would be forced to retaliate.

So, everyone comes to the clear conclusion, that doing nothing is the best way to go forward.

Dani
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