DJD,
With regards to reference checks, I don't think it means your in, but things are definately looking very good, one would assume that if they are going to the trouble to check references they must be interested. Put it this way, I've never heard of anyone get reference checked and not get in. Took me two weeks after ref checks to get a start date, but have heard of guys and gals with only a day or two wait.
Hope this all helps
Cheers All