Yea but.....
All great guessing, but...
As it stands now many senior FOs are stayng on bases. This will not happen as much in the future.
My prediction is that the 50% uptake being suggested will drop and most if not all FOs of the future will put their hand up for command. Historically the failure rate on initial courses varied as high as 30%. However the failure rate on second courses was much lower maybe 5%.
So you need to adjust the rate accordingly.
If you join today, 1500 slots before command. 80 commands for 5 years, then slow down, 40-50 commands for 5 more years then bigger retirements and 60 per year after that. Add in 20% loss rate and you get 480 no.s / years 1-5, then 240 in years 6-10, and 72 every year after that. So join today = 20 years time to command
Big what if no expansion ? I don't see much in the next ten years. So 20 years may be CONSERVATIVE !
FG
My 2c.
fG