Let me have a go:
How many places are there between the first command in 2011 and the 49th? Let's say there are 100, that means the company had to screen, offer, assess, train etc in order to produce 49 commands. Let's assume 49 commands out of every 100 is the natural rate for this company.
If the target is 98 commands a year, we can then assume the front 200 FOs on the list (excluding those who have been at the top of the list for a long time and are likely to stay there for whatever reason, with due respect) will get a shot. From this simplistic scenario no 1601 will be in that batch of 200 in the 8th year. But over this 8 year period, how many of the 102 who remain an FO after their first attempt/assessment will come back for their second attempt?
Let X be the average number of FOs between the first new command to the last in any year.
Let C be the average number of new commanders each year over the next 20 years.
Let N be the number of FOs who make a second attempt when the time comes and let's assume that to be 2 years after their first attempt.
(let's assume all FOs succeed on their second attempt)
Let T be the year since joining the seniority list when a person would begin the command process ie assessment, accepting or turning down a course and beginning the actual course.
T = (1600 / X) + [(1600/X - 2) * N]/C
An example: 200 seniority numbers produces 98 new commanders, the company targets 98 new commanders a year for the next 20 years. All first time failures will have a second attempt and passes.
T = (1600/200) + [(1600/200 - 2) * 102]/98
= 9 yrs
Obviously, this number is not consistent with the reality. The reasons are in the assumptions: 200 and 98 are likely to be higher than average. If we use 49 commanders out of 80 and target 80 commanders a year, both not difficult to imagine, it would give T = 20 yrs 2 mths
Last edited by Guru; 3rd Jan 2012 at 04:46.