Gotcha to bang your head! But yes, there are more than 49 seniority numbers between 2011's first and last new captains, and I thought we figured out that will vary too.
Yes, 32.6 assumes every FO does his course and gets promoted. Wasn't that implied in the variables and factors thing? What if 10 more planes go to Air China this year and 10 more to Air Hong Kong next year and 10 more to Dragonair the year after that, and the price of fuel quintuples and air travel falls by 75%, how does that affect the rate?
OK, so let's assume 25% of FO's refuse/fail/quit the course: 24.5 years
Or how about 50%: 16.3 years.
Amended Repeat: In general, with plenty of unknowns and no way to predict the future, and lots of variables and factors that come and go that change the rate in both directions at random times, the time will vary but generally increase from approximately 11 to 32 years depending how soon after 2000 that someone joined, with the worst case being the most recent joiners...in general.
