Repeat: While there are variables (training rates, retirement rates, etc.) and other factors (FO's on bases staying on bases, failures, expansion/reduction etc.) the point is that the current rate as of 2011, which is known after all the variables and factors are included for that whole year, is 49/year, and with 1600 pilots ahead of a new joiner, and that works out to 32.6 years from joining to promotion to captain. Even if the rate unrealistically doubles and is sustained forever at 98/year and nothing else changes, that would mean 16.3 years for a new joiner. But the current time to command for a new joiner is 32.6 years.
Repeat: No it isn't. You acknowledge the 'variables' but do not include them in your calculation. It is not so much important that 49 captains were generated in 2011, what is important is ...what was the seniority number of the first captain and then (looking at the same list) what was the senioriy number of the last captain promoted in 2011. The difference between these two numbers is the rate of consumption of seniority numbers ahead of any one individual. This is the number you should be looking at. I confess that unless you are a seniority geek this number is much harder to obtain.