turnandburn,
Repeat The FO's who got promoted in 2011 joined in 2000, and ended up being captains in their 12th year with the company. This is not the current rate, this is the rate for those in their 12th year with the company, as they benefited from earlier expansion and younger retirement ages of those ahead of them.
Repeat: The new joiner in 2011, at assuming a rate of 49 new captains per year and 1600 pilots head of him, will have to wait 32.6 years.
Repeat: The calendar year in which a command course begins has no effect on the number of promotions in a calendar year. The 16 you say began their training in 2011 will count in 2012, just as those who began in 2010 but finished in 2011 counted as new captains in 2011, not in 2010. Beginning a course is irrelevant: Finishing the course and being promoted is what creates a new captain, and in 2011 there were 49.
Repeat: While there are variables (training rates, retirement rates, etc.) and other factors (FO's on bases staying on bases, failures, expansion/reduction etc.) the point is that the current rate as of 2011, which is known after all the variables and factors are included for that whole year, is 49/year, and with 1600 pilots ahead of a new joiner, and that works out to 32.6 years from joining to promotion to captain. Even if the rate unrealistically doubles and is sustained forever at 98/year and nothing else changes, that would mean 16.3 years for a new joiner. But the current time to command for a new joiner is 32.6 years.
So, for those who joined in 2000, it is around 11-12 years, for those who joined in 2011, it is around 32 years, and for everyone in between, it varies between 11 and 32 years depending on how soon they joined after those in 2000.