DfT forecasts
I was reading this report over the weekend, and when thinking about traffic predictions it is interesting to note that the DfT's model was significantly wrong with recent projections for MAN. On pages 37 and 40 the report presents the forecast vs actual tables for both passengers and ATMs as evidence of the accuracy of the modelling. However, figures for MAN are notably out on both counts, in particular with ATMs. There is no commentary to explain why MAN has not performed in accordance with predictions. The tables show MAN achieved significantly less throughtput than predicted yet there is no corresponding increase against forecasts at other competing airports to explain where MAN's traffic went. Competing airports generally performed closer to forecasts. These results may support the notion that MAN has a rather unique market profile which does not respond in the same way to economic and social trends affecting other airports with a more defined market i.e. Heathrow- all full service flag carriers; Stansted/ Luton / Liverpool - mainly locos. Interesting to note that the growth predictions on pages 149 and 160 single out MAN amongst the top five airports as being the only one to sustain growth beyond 2030. This assumes capacity is constrained of course, and there are no more runways. In terms of movements both LHR and LGW are shown to be effectively full now. MAN certainly has the potential to get back to its 2006 peak of 225000 ATMs and maybe some more, but I have no idea how it could achieve the forecast 400000 ATMs using the present segregated mode dual-runway configuration. It does make you wonder what assumptions have been built into these models.