Very true that this time there is not going to be an exoduc of military pilots. The armed forces are smaller now, shooooould have better retention given recent measures and anyway - they are desperately short on the front lines as it is.
During the early to mid 90's there were significant numbers of people leaving Anti Bettys flying club for the airlines. That ain't going to happen this time.
However, and there usually is one unfortunately, this time around we have JAR land.
Sabena went bust. Within weeks dozens and dozens and dozens of Belgian pilots were having interviews at UK airlines which were pretty much the only ones hiring at the time. Fair enough, a body of better trained and experienced pilots you would struggle to find. But it proves a useful illustration to how things have changed now we all have the same licenses and the right to live and work in each others countries.
If one looks at some of the large national airlines in Europe then you might decide they are grossly overstaffed and that consolodation and efficiency drives are inevitable.
One could therefore argue that last times pool of ex-mil pilots has simply been replaced by a pool of Continental pilots. A big pool.
Which is a bit of a downer if you are a Brit Wannabe struggling to get a first job.
As a final twist it could backfire on the airlines as foreign pilots might well return to their home country the minute the industry there recovers. So just as things really start picking up again in the UK market a whole chunk of experienced Left Hand Seats wave cheerio. Crunch time.
Who knows!
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