Do you really think there will be a Billateral agreement with the USA? I don't because there is nothing in it for the USA. And to be honest there mentality is that everyone else does as they want not the other way round. It doesn't really matter what the US intelligent multinational savy political types think, the majority of the US political types truely believe its there job to dictate the deal. And they don't give two hoots about none citizens rights and getting screwed over by their own goverments. Example of which is the extradition treaty which basically means if the US wants someone we have to hand them over. If we want someone from the US tough.
Personally I would pin my hopes on Greece bring the euro down.
The N reg loophole getting stopped has been on the cards before JAR started.
The pilot shortage myth comes from the predicted production of Boeing. There is a shortage of training staff and CAptains while local supply sorts itself out. Once the expansion slows the expats will get booted out. Its already started in India. In europe we are over supplied by double if not triple the amount of jobs for new starts.
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/Flight...rch%202010.pdf
CPL issue is double that of ratings issue (and some of them will be second or even third types).
And if there is such a shortage as you say there shouldn't be a problem for all the displaced N reg commercial pilots in the EU getting work in these developing markets. But hang on you don't want to work in ****eholes like the rest of us either, do you. You want to take advantage of the quality of life that you get in europe.
And as I have said time and time again its the principle of opting out of the local system because you don't like it. It doesn't matter that the system you are using is way superior to the local system (yes i know you going to pick up on that). You live/work/operate in a state you follow that states local laws and if you use a loophole to get round the local laws and it gets shut, well thats the gamble you took when you used it.
Yes they will extend the time and proberly for another year after 2014. But in the end it will happen because its taking the piss out of the Governing States ability to govern there own country and citizens, politicians can't let that happen. The fact that a group of countries have bound themselves together towards a group policy makes life very hard for you because it blocks you from using international agreements until you are outside that zone.
The 67000 FAA pilots bit, where do they get that number from?
Thats more than the combined working commercial pilots in the EU. I presume I am counted in that number as well even though I only used the ticket for 6 months. Realistically how many actually fly N reg actively? How many N reg airframes are based in Europe? Would 100 be a fair count for the UK?
Anyway its 2500 pilots per member state which to a political type is a drop in the ocean when it comes to pissing voters off with reform.
Instead of putting effort in to trying to retain the current loophole status you would be better putting in all your efforts into getting the system in the country that you live and work in to be the best you can get it. It won't go the way you want it, but you will just have to try and work it so it doesn go the way they want it either. I never thought to say it but support the frogs its by far the most likely way your going to get a half way house.