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Old 23rd Jun 2011, 22:17
  #12 (permalink)  
Sunfish
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: moon
Posts: 3,564
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TBM, you and the rest of the Asian fantasist just don't get it.

Yes, the Asian market is huge, however you forget one thing - it's an Asian market.

What that means is that the airlines that serve it are going to be Asian. They are going to be staffed by Asians trained by other Asians. The aircraft will be built in Asia (as far as possible). The GSE and infrastructure will be built in Asia by Asians. The ATC will be Asian, and of course the passengers will be Asian. But more importantly the revenues and profits will be Asian.


So Qantas thinks it can walk in and say "I'll have a chunk of that!" That is about as realistic as El Al deciding that the burgeoning mining fly in fly out markets in Wester Australia justify setting up an El Al base in Perth and mixing it with Australian competitors, or Aeroflot deciding that it wants to compete on the Sydney - Melbourne market. - in your dreams fellah!


The "huge Asian market" game has been played by the Chinese since at least as early as 1935, and it sucks in Western money every time it does because there is always some gormless Western twit like Alan Joyce who thinks that there really is a pot of gold at the end of the Asian rainbow - there isn't, unless you are Asian.


To put it another way; what can Qantas do in Asia that the Asians cannot do better and cheaper themselves? A Neil Perry menu perhaps?

To put it yet another way, if you decide to risk your money and technology in China, you are going to have to have such a commanding technological position that the Chinese cannot steal it from you no matter what.

By the way, its probable that those 200 Airbuses will be built in China, and Airbus itself may get stung if it is not very very careful. Qantas has already had warnings; how is Jetstar Vietnam going? Jetstar Asia?

I don't have to speculate on this because I know it to be the case. My Father started trading in Asia around 1935 and the Family company successfully operated in that environment from 1960 to 2000. You will not believe the games that are played, and it not only cost people all their money, at least one joint venture ended in the suicide of the western principle.

Defend your patch in Australia and trade at arms length on strict and honorable terms. You will win respect and make a little money. Leave this Asian joint venture crap alone, it always ends in tears.
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