I would say more but I'm on my lunch at work and have more obsolete analytics to waste people's time with it seems.
See, I was reading down your post, agreeing with what you wrote, but then I saw this comment. It was a bit childish considering you actually highlighted my quote which states 'Im not suggesting analysts are obsolete', but then seemed to go down the path of assuming that I was saying you were anyway. Not a good twist of words there.
I was not trying to offend in any way, but you seem to have made your own mind up on that.
Actually a mature understanding of past behaviours is a pretty good guide to future trends, not a gaurantee of course
That sentence, written by an analyst is the entire point I am trying to make. Yes, past trends can show certain things, but, is not the be all and end all. At the end of the day, the world changes on a daily basis. I know its very unlikely, but, what if Gadaffi is captured tomorrow, and western companies get their hands on the oil again, bringing prices down. What if Syria suddenly sorts itself out, what if the austerity measures actually work and the UK/Europe prospers. On the flipside, what if another 9/11 type event happened? What if oil suddenly skyrockets further? Its just so hard to predict.
Thisngs like seasonal changes and 10 years worth of data can be used to predict to some degree, but not all of it.