DAL154 is taking a winter break? Hmmm does that mean he has to change his username? (again?)
But on the flip side, why does American see demand for the winter and staying year round on JFK this year? This is what Im saying, one persons prediction may not match someone elses.
Quite a lot has been written of late. Quite a lot indeed.
Firstly there is more than one variable in play. The demand may be there year round. You could fill seats. You may even make money. However the asset may also be used better elsewhere on your network so the carrier may rightly be summer only in the face of apparent demand.
Yes we analysts do on occasion get it wrong, however it can depend whether you are preaching to a closed mind or whether more factors are in play than straight P&L. There may be a strategic reason underpinning matters which explain why a decision seems to go against the data presented.
I shouted this down due to the fact I think predicting future trends is about as useful as fortune telling.
Please don't shout people down on here, most are intelligent and deserve to be listened to. Actually a mature understanding of past behaviours is a pretty good guide to future trends, not a gaurantee of course but when one has confidence in the information and we can be certain it's not being skewed for political (or strategic) purposes then it can be invaluable. It's why some comapnies survive and some go under. Ask Don Burr about data and how American CEO Bob Crandall killed his company with it. (Actually he may be dead by now so best not to try but the point stands)
Im not saying analysts are obsolete
What do you suggest then? All sit round and have a chat, form a consensus about the strategy and move forward without hard data and proper stats? Guess what, without those analysts and forward predictions, you get no credit line, no financing, no future, no jobs, no way will you get shiny new aircraft without a solid business case hence no company. Heavens above!
I would say more but I'm on my lunch at work and have more obsolete analytics to waste people's time with it seems.
Core message? Manchester's forward planning was derailed by fragmentation of the local market with the rise of LPL and LBA and long haul suffers *slightly* from being too close to Heathrow in some ways but on a European comparisone level is still oversubscribed. The loss of BA is overstated, the loss of WW is more of a loss to them I think.
Stop looking at YOY ( Year in Year), take a step back, look at what's happened in the last ten years and understand that the airport is back on track but that the vision that was presented back pre 9-11 isn't the one that is realistic now. The good thing about the people on here is that some have long memories and have seen the cycle some two and three times now.