LN-KGL.
We may not be in posative growth yet, but we are in growth none-the-less.
The main contention is that you said:
More and less the sole reason for the "recovery" at MAN is only the cancelling out of the Icelandic ash effect
But
your own figures prove the figures were growing before the ash affected passenger numbers:
October 2010 +28,996 passengers
November 2010 +21,924 passengers
December 2010 +18,822 passengers
January 2011 +62,552 passengers
February 2011 +39,011 passengers
So my main point was that the ash has helped skew the figures into an even bigger posative, but, it is not the 'sole' reason for the growth.
Also, I dont know where you studied maths, but, your 'trendlines' leave out a lot to be desired.
You say growth will only be around 2%, well, I disagree and think it will be more.
We have many more seats available this year compared to last, added to the general growth of the exsisting services to to a 'little' bit more disposable income, and without posting reams and reams of sums at this time of night, I expect overall yearly growth to be nearer 5-6%.
The real problem for MAN has been to replace the charter segment that is in decline with LCCs. The nearby LPL and LBA have both profited on this
This has been an issue in the past, but, MAN is now winning the passengers back through the loco growth. MAN actually has more loco operators than LPL and LBA now, probably more than both combined.
Easyjet has grown from the 2 based GB units in 2008 to 7 units next year, as opposed to LPL's 10 units considering the base has been open 10 years more than MAN. The RYR growth to other Euro-bases will more than likely continue, as will Jet2's growth. Monarch are about to become a fully fledged loco, with MAN the first base to benefit from this, then we have Air Berlin, Germanwings, Flybe and now Norwegian. LBA has 2 RYR aircraft, a Jet2 base now a similar size to MAN, a token flybe operation and thats about it for Loco. Liverpool has Wizz, Ryanair and Easyjet, with again a token flybe operation. So, its obvious MAN now once again has the tools to re-capture its lost passengers.
MAN is also actively trying to make sure it doesnt miss this boat again and have to play catch up, as its trying to make sure it is known to the loco long haul operators. Air Asia X has said MAN is on their radar for a launch within the next 12 months, the Air Canada loco has selected MAN as a departure point, and Jetstar Australia has quoted MAN as a destination in the past. Add this to the already operating Air Blue of Pakistan, and there we have it.
It may not be the 11.4% growth rate your beloved OSL is growing, but, MAN is on the up.