The MAD route from MAN sounds like it could fit if the Air Europa deal works out. And monarch have said they are looking at Italy for new destinations so those rumours could have some weight behind them.
As for a base in belfast. Not a chance in my eyes. I think it would be great if they did but looking at the business i don't see any new bases except for charter bases and the possiblity for UK mainland regional bases. It was mentioned a few months back about NCL and 2 others i cannot remember.