PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Standard (or lack there of) of Weather Forecasting in Australia
Old 2nd Jun 2011, 04:21
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Slippery_Pete
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Australia
Posts: 488
Received 374 Likes on 70 Posts
Agree with Adam.

You all need to read a book called "Inside the Sky" by William Langeweische.

Written by an experienced pilot - has quite interesting assessment of weather and the life/job of a professional aviation forecaster.

The problem with forecasting is you can never be a good forecaster - it is an inexact science. An ordinary or average pilot can keep their passengers alive for 40 years quite easily. An absoutely exceptional, top quality forecaster can't get the forecast right every day for 40 years.

It's the sort of job where no matter what, you are doomed to a career of being ignored when you get it right (99% of the time) and ridiculed as an absolute imbocile when you don't. Definitely not a job I'd like to do.

I think our weather forecasters do a great job. The computer modelling systems are slowly getting better (as shown by the new 30 hour TAFs becoming viable), but they will never be right all the time.

I'm sure Airservices would agree to give you a 100% perfect forecast on the condition you produced to them a perfect pilot who never makes mistakes!
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