Standard (or lack there of) of Weather Forecasting in Australia
Thread Starter
Standard (or lack there of) of Weather Forecasting in Australia
Sorry to have a whine but this has been going on far to much of recent. Changes the subject off QF for a bit anyways.
This morning in Sydney there was a very large thunderstorm just to the north of Sydney airport, certainly covering the approach area, in second picture it is 8km off approach and closing (wx moving from SE). As you can see below the forecast had no requirements.
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Although technically the cell didn't come within 5km of the airfield, on another day it could have gone straight over with no change to the forecast (until the last minute of course
). I have seen this happen, much the same forecast but this time the storm was closer to the field-3 aircraft before ours got struck by lightning. My point is that yesterday I was flying and the TTF had INTER 4000m in RA BKN 010. The weather was better than that, but was a fair forecast. Today the weather was awful and yet still the same forecast. Where I was sitting in that cell the vis was down to 1,000m with hail.
Not unusual I know but I am posting this for two reasons.
The first being to let people know from overseas that what you see on an Australian forecast may be far different to what the conditions at the field/close vicinity are. (ie a thunderstorm missed the field by 10km, the TAF has no mention of thunderstorms at all, they aren't that good at within 5km
). YES the weather is difficult to predict and YES of course people know that all forecasts are just that-forecasts and the weather may always be different. I am just saying whereas in Asia they just seem to stick TS on if there is a chance, in Oz (namely Sydney) half the time they just call thunderstorms rain with no requirements!
The second reason is to ask why on earth the BOM seem to afraid to put TS on the forecast. They seem to be having a bet each way with issuing forecasts such as these. If there is any chance at all that a TS will be in the VC put it on the forecast, doesn't cost them anything.
Unfortunately due to this inaccuracy if I see 3/4000m in RA or *RA BKN 010 I will usually try and take fuel for at least a healthy INTER/TEMPO + ATC. There is no faith in the BOM forecast because (other then summer) it is generally the same forecast (RA) whether TS or not! Perhaps if they were a bit more selective we would have more faith in carrying the correct amount of fuel. Our company has a department that already loads the extra fuel if they think there is a chance it going TS, but they do not always do it (not sure about today). But the fact we have such a resource doesn't matter, companies having their own weather departments to put risks on the BOM weather being inaccurate doesn't resolve the BOM from issuing accurate forecasts.
Yes predicting the weather is difficult. However this is not the first time today's scenario has happened here in Sydney. It has been going on for a while now.
Rant over
This morning in Sydney there was a very large thunderstorm just to the north of Sydney airport, certainly covering the approach area, in second picture it is 8km off approach and closing (wx moving from SE). As you can see below the forecast had no requirements.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Although technically the cell didn't come within 5km of the airfield, on another day it could have gone straight over with no change to the forecast (until the last minute of course
). I have seen this happen, much the same forecast but this time the storm was closer to the field-3 aircraft before ours got struck by lightning. My point is that yesterday I was flying and the TTF had INTER 4000m in RA BKN 010. The weather was better than that, but was a fair forecast. Today the weather was awful and yet still the same forecast. Where I was sitting in that cell the vis was down to 1,000m with hail. Not unusual I know but I am posting this for two reasons.
The first being to let people know from overseas that what you see on an Australian forecast may be far different to what the conditions at the field/close vicinity are. (ie a thunderstorm missed the field by 10km, the TAF has no mention of thunderstorms at all, they aren't that good at within 5km
). YES the weather is difficult to predict and YES of course people know that all forecasts are just that-forecasts and the weather may always be different. I am just saying whereas in Asia they just seem to stick TS on if there is a chance, in Oz (namely Sydney) half the time they just call thunderstorms rain with no requirements!The second reason is to ask why on earth the BOM seem to afraid to put TS on the forecast. They seem to be having a bet each way with issuing forecasts such as these. If there is any chance at all that a TS will be in the VC put it on the forecast, doesn't cost them anything.
Unfortunately due to this inaccuracy if I see 3/4000m in RA or *RA BKN 010 I will usually try and take fuel for at least a healthy INTER/TEMPO + ATC. There is no faith in the BOM forecast because (other then summer) it is generally the same forecast (RA) whether TS or not! Perhaps if they were a bit more selective we would have more faith in carrying the correct amount of fuel. Our company has a department that already loads the extra fuel if they think there is a chance it going TS, but they do not always do it (not sure about today). But the fact we have such a resource doesn't matter, companies having their own weather departments to put risks on the BOM weather being inaccurate doesn't resolve the BOM from issuing accurate forecasts.
Yes predicting the weather is difficult. However this is not the first time today's scenario has happened here in Sydney. It has been going on for a while now.
Rant over
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Airservices "Network Status" website a joke
Storms up the east coast between Sydney and Brisbane, ETAs on the airport websites looking dubious compared with schedule, sh-t & corruption on the SY and BN TAFs, Start Clearances Required on the SY ATIS, but the Airservices Australia "Network Status" shows a green light for every capital city.
Green=No delays expected.
What fantasy world does this organisation exist in?
Network status update - Airservices Australia
Green=No delays expected.
What fantasy world does this organisation exist in?
Network status update - Airservices Australia
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Happens in MEL too.
Normally as an underestimation of the lowering cloud base with the passage of a warm front.
Bit of a coincidence when new TAFs are issued 5min after each new ATIS. The ATIS will often beat the TAF to BKN005 before they get the idea.
I have seen the ATIS say FG before the TAF does too, although PER might get the prize there.
Forecasting? Its called Aftercasting and as a pilot with a bit of local knowledge you make your own mind up.
As the OP say tho', doesnt help the Intl operators.
Normally as an underestimation of the lowering cloud base with the passage of a warm front.
Bit of a coincidence when new TAFs are issued 5min after each new ATIS. The ATIS will often beat the TAF to BKN005 before they get the idea.
I have seen the ATIS say FG before the TAF does too, although PER might get the prize there.Forecasting? Its called Aftercasting and as a pilot with a bit of local knowledge you make your own mind up.
As the OP say tho', doesnt help the Intl operators.
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its not just terminal forecasts as well, the past few months i have noticed larger and larger discrepancies between whats forecast and whats actual in area forecast as well. last east, planned to Temora from YWOL, wind forecast was 260 at 10 kts max, actual headwind was 45 kts! the last 4 big navs i have done the plan has been throw out the window within 10 mins of take off. winds totally incorrect. and by big margins.
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I dont know about you , but every time I see a "So Called" Senior Forecaster on TV , I nearly collapse with mirth!!! It appears a "Forecaster" becomes a "Senior" Forecaster after about 1 months service with the Bureau.
Intertwined with words like , Perhaps, Chance of, Maybe, Probable, Could Be, Likely to , More Likely To, these turkeys sprout out the biggest load of C..P ever heard, relentlessly.
How come you never see the same "Senior Forecaster" more than 3 or 4 times on TV before they strangely disappear from the screen forever.
There must be a huge turnover of staff at the Weather Bureau.
Thank God for Internet Weather Maps, the average Joe Blow with half a brain can determine a Weather Forecast with decent accuracy in a couple of minutesfrom these sites.
If the Government wanted to get serious about budget cuts , the Weather Bureau would be my FIRST CHOP!!!!!
Intertwined with words like , Perhaps, Chance of, Maybe, Probable, Could Be, Likely to , More Likely To, these turkeys sprout out the biggest load of C..P ever heard, relentlessly.
How come you never see the same "Senior Forecaster" more than 3 or 4 times on TV before they strangely disappear from the screen forever.
There must be a huge turnover of staff at the Weather Bureau.
Thank God for Internet Weather Maps, the average Joe Blow with half a brain can determine a Weather Forecast with decent accuracy in a couple of minutesfrom these sites.
If the Government wanted to get serious about budget cuts , the Weather Bureau would be my FIRST CHOP!!!!!
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Yep, and ditto to us bugsmashers as well. Last Tuesday out of BK the weather was way worse than the forecast suggested, and as we all know.....you can't go over it on O2 because of Willytown R space, can't go lower due LSALT, can't go right, can go left but only by getting into some clear air and VFR scud running.
Had I known what it was really going to be like I would have planned via Bathurst and Dubbo - Moree etc.
Ohh well........
PS: and on a funny note, I had an SMS from a mate this morning and it said......Hey Jaba, I got my amphibian endorsement today. I did it on 16R in SYD. If it stops raining I'll extend the gear and taxi to the terminal......
Had I known what it was really going to be like I would have planned via Bathurst and Dubbo - Moree etc.
Ohh well........
PS: and on a funny note, I had an SMS from a mate this morning and it said......Hey Jaba, I got my amphibian endorsement today. I did it on 16R in SYD. If it stops raining I'll extend the gear and taxi to the terminal......
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It is firmly entrenched in Airservices DNA, it doesn't matter what the truth is. Corporate Affairs says to tell the industry that everything ASA has an input into is wonderful, voila, everything is wonderful.
I'll resend the memo.
I'll resend the memo.
The weather was better than that, but was a fair forecast. Today the weather was awful and yet still the same forecast.
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I'd like to stick up for the BoM - I think they do a great job, including at Sydney. What I see in the original rant is some 'Monday morning quarterbacking' of a weather forecast (how dare the weather not do precisely as expected?!), a profound misunderstanding of the data on offer and then a consequent tilt at windmills.
A TAF is an AERODROME forecast. Since some people don't seem to get it, from AIP:
Note also that it is 5 NAUTICAL MILES from the AD, not 5km as someone consistently and incorrectly states. If the storm cells were at BOOGI they would affect arrivals into SY. Should they be on the YSSY TAF? If the storm cells were at BIK they would affect arrivals into SY. Should they be on the YSSY TAF? If the storm cells were at YBBN they would affect arrivals into SY. Should they be on the YSSY TAF?
It seems to me that the BoM information was PRECISELY WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE on this given morning, but because you don't like the information and think they should be providing something above and beyond the scope of a TAF, you bollock them?! Geez, Louise!
As other people have said, look at ALL the appropriate weather info (TS were quoted that morning had you looked in the right places), use some nous (PRM might have been a hint?), and carry the appropriate fuel. Fairly simple.
Adamastor
P.S. TAAATS, agree that SY should always be amber on that silly site.
A TAF is an AERODROME forecast. Since some people don't seem to get it, from AIP:
Aerodrome forecasts (TAF) are a statement of meteorological
conditions expected for a specified period in the airspace within a
radius of five (5) nautical miles of the aerodrome reference point.
conditions expected for a specified period in the airspace within a
radius of five (5) nautical miles of the aerodrome reference point.
It seems to me that the BoM information was PRECISELY WHAT IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE on this given morning, but because you don't like the information and think they should be providing something above and beyond the scope of a TAF, you bollock them?! Geez, Louise!
As other people have said, look at ALL the appropriate weather info (TS were quoted that morning had you looked in the right places), use some nous (PRM might have been a hint?), and carry the appropriate fuel. Fairly simple.
Adamastor
P.S. TAAATS, agree that SY should always be amber on that silly site.
Agree with Adam.
You all need to read a book called "Inside the Sky" by William Langeweische.
Written by an experienced pilot - has quite interesting assessment of weather and the life/job of a professional aviation forecaster.
The problem with forecasting is you can never be a good forecaster - it is an inexact science. An ordinary or average pilot can keep their passengers alive for 40 years quite easily. An absoutely exceptional, top quality forecaster can't get the forecast right every day for 40 years.
It's the sort of job where no matter what, you are doomed to a career of being ignored when you get it right (99% of the time) and ridiculed as an absolute imbocile when you don't. Definitely not a job I'd like to do.
I think our weather forecasters do a great job. The computer modelling systems are slowly getting better (as shown by the new 30 hour TAFs becoming viable), but they will never be right all the time.
I'm sure Airservices would agree to give you a 100% perfect forecast on the condition you produced to them a perfect pilot who never makes mistakes!
You all need to read a book called "Inside the Sky" by William Langeweische.
Written by an experienced pilot - has quite interesting assessment of weather and the life/job of a professional aviation forecaster.
The problem with forecasting is you can never be a good forecaster - it is an inexact science. An ordinary or average pilot can keep their passengers alive for 40 years quite easily. An absoutely exceptional, top quality forecaster can't get the forecast right every day for 40 years.
It's the sort of job where no matter what, you are doomed to a career of being ignored when you get it right (99% of the time) and ridiculed as an absolute imbocile when you don't. Definitely not a job I'd like to do.
I think our weather forecasters do a great job. The computer modelling systems are slowly getting better (as shown by the new 30 hour TAFs becoming viable), but they will never be right all the time.
I'm sure Airservices would agree to give you a 100% perfect forecast on the condition you produced to them a perfect pilot who never makes mistakes!
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Having been in the industry for about 30 years, I think the quality of BOM forecasting has improved vastly, especially in the last few years. In the 80's and 90's I think local knowlegde was more important than trusting the TAF's. but now I feel a lot happier with their forecasting. although its still good to put in a bit more gas for mum and the kids
Safety Oversight of Met
Once upon a time the Civil Aviation Act Part II Section 9 stated that CASA had safety oversight of the Aviation related functions of the Bureau of Met (and AMSA for aviation search and rescue) in precisely the same way as CASA has safety oversight of Airservices and all the aerodromes.
BUT then the responsible CASA Manager said, well if we have these powers we had better at least go and audit the Met Bureau and ask them how they explain this (long list) of safety related forecasting failures. Forecast of CAVOK but thunderstorms closing a runway with flooding was one example.
Instantly there was a huge kerfuffle and much consternation at Departmental Head level. Nobody who worked for one Minister was about to demonstrate the shortcomings of a portfolio administered by another Minister.
And so the Civil Aviation Act was amended to avoid such safety oversight. So much for safety first. And Met gets away with a great many errors because nobody says "please explain".
Those who wish to check it are welcome to go back through the amendments to the Act at Civil Aviation Act 1988
BUT then the responsible CASA Manager said, well if we have these powers we had better at least go and audit the Met Bureau and ask them how they explain this (long list) of safety related forecasting failures. Forecast of CAVOK but thunderstorms closing a runway with flooding was one example.
Instantly there was a huge kerfuffle and much consternation at Departmental Head level. Nobody who worked for one Minister was about to demonstrate the shortcomings of a portfolio administered by another Minister.
And so the Civil Aviation Act was amended to avoid such safety oversight. So much for safety first. And Met gets away with a great many errors because nobody says "please explain".
Those who wish to check it are welcome to go back through the amendments to the Act at Civil Aviation Act 1988
