Sorry to have a whine but this has been going on far to much of recent. Changes the subject off QF for a bit anyways.
This morning in Sydney there was a very large thunderstorm just to the north of Sydney airport, certainly covering the approach area, in second picture it is 8km off approach and closing (wx moving from SE). As you can see below the forecast had no requirements.
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Although technically the cell didn't come within 5km of the airfield, on another day it could have gone straight over with no change to the forecast (until the last minute of course
). I have seen this happen, much the same forecast but this time the storm was closer to the field-3 aircraft before ours got struck by lightning. My point is that yesterday I was flying and the TTF had INTER 4000m in RA BKN 010. The weather was better than that, but was a fair forecast. Today the weather was awful and yet still the same forecast. Where I was sitting in that cell the vis was down to 1,000m with hail.
Not unusual I know but I am posting this for two reasons.
The first being to let people know from overseas that what you see on an Australian forecast may be far different to what the conditions at the field/close vicinity are. (ie a thunderstorm missed the field by 10km, the TAF has no mention of thunderstorms at all, they aren't
that good at within 5km
). YES the weather is difficult to predict and YES of course people know that all forecasts are just that-forecasts and the weather may always be different. I am just saying whereas in Asia they just seem to stick TS on if there is a chance, in Oz (namely Sydney) half the time they just call thunderstorms rain with no requirements!
The second reason is to ask why on earth the BOM seem to afraid to put TS on the forecast. They seem to be having a bet each way with issuing forecasts such as these. If there is any chance at all that a TS will be in the VC put it on the forecast, doesn't cost them anything.
Unfortunately due to this inaccuracy if I see 3/4000m in RA or *RA BKN 010 I will usually try and take fuel for at least a healthy INTER/TEMPO + ATC. There is no faith in the BOM forecast because (other then summer) it is generally the same forecast (RA) whether TS or not! Perhaps if they were a bit more selective we would have more faith in carrying the correct amount of fuel. Our company has a department that already loads the extra fuel if they think there is a chance it going TS, but they do not always do it (not sure about today). But the fact we have such a resource doesn't matter, companies having their own weather departments to put risks on the BOM weather being inaccurate doesn't resolve the BOM from issuing accurate forecasts.
Yes predicting the weather is difficult. However this is not the first time today's scenario has happened here in Sydney. It has been going on for a while now.
Rant over
