PIA - You're Spot on Roverman
I think that in the North of England, the only viable option for long haul direct (and even to certain extent via euro-hubs) will be from MAN. EK from NCL will continue to succeed by way of its geographical postion (albeit a very limited catchment) but anything else is a non-starter. And this includes EMA and BHX (which will always come second fiddle to LHR).
Even in what is a tight, highly competitive market, this is what is happening. It will be interesting to see how prices the the gulf change when there ar (soon) 2000+ seats a day from MAN e/bound...but then again, pax figures from the likes of LH seem to indicate that there are still plenty of people willing to go long-haul via MAN from MUN and FRA.
We live in interesting times...