It's a frightening scenario .....
...you've laid out for us, Tuc.
I often wonder if ANY of these very clever chaps ever see the results of their thinking?
I remember a long time ago being told about "Monte Carlo" simulation where you created a lot of likely outcomes and then rolled dice to answer the question "What do we do if......happens" Surely there must be a modern equivalent? Do they ever use it?
I did hear first hand of a young sharp graduate sent in by the management consultants who queried why we kept such large stocks of ammunition when the "just in time" practice would fill the bill. It took a much older and wiser head to say "Listen son you're a squaddie in a forward outpost. You're under fire and you run out of bullets. How do you propose resupplying him in that situation"
"I hadn't thought of that....!"
Answer was the management consultants hired an independent consultant with direct sevice experience to sort out the FUBAR (and bill MOD for the second consultant's fee.)
T'would make you weep.
The Ancient Mariner