Stats: March 2011 and Outlook
New scheduled services are a very welcome positive but we have reductions to factor in too. The BMI cutback on MAN-LHR is substantial; the Tripoli service by Libyan is gone (for obvious reasons); FlyBe to Manston and EasyJet to Helsinki finish soon. CSA is not returning this Summer, neither is FlyBe to Bournemouth. So on the scheduled front, both good and bad news is in the mix.
With regard to March specifically, it will be interesting to observe the reduction in holiday sales to Egyptian and Tunisian resorts in particular. Egypt is unlikely to recover to anything like 2010 volumes this year. Spain missed its chance to mop up customers displaced from North Africa in March as the widely publicized threat of strikes discouraged switched bookings.
I suspect that the IT sector is the likely culprit for the March drop. Weakness can be expected to persist for the year ahead not only due to reduced capacity in key markets such as Egypt, but also because many families are feeling the pinch financially. Leisure travel spend is discretionary, and high oil prices and taxes are inhibiting latent demand.
Whilst I would rather be proven wrong, I stand by my assessment in earlier (more detailed) postings that 2011 will be a difficult year rather than a boom one. Monthly drops in passenger figures in the single digits % should not come as a shock to anybody with geopolitical awareness.
SHED.