Any positives? Well obviously destinations such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece stand to do well if they play their cards right.
Never heard a more true statement. Egypt and Turkey were revelling in the fact of a weak pound/euro exchange for the past couple of years and their tourism industries have piggybacked on it. Obviously this can all change now and as the £ begins to strengthen once again (likely to increase further upon interest rate hikes in the summer) the likes of Spain, Greece (a country that has suffered massively lately), Italy and Portugal can all regain taken tourism. Could we add Turkey to that list also?
This will be a challenging season ahead for TUI, Thomas Cook and their brethren in the IT sector.
I agree more short haul than long haul. As I mentioned in the Monarch thread - TOM and TCX have been putting a lot of money and efforts into their long haul networks, something that appeals more to the middle class in the UK. In fact FCA began this trend a number of years back. They now offer a top quality service and have prices to match.
It's common knowledge that those who have a decreasing disposable income would make everyday sacrifices before giving up with an annual holiday. The middle class have been 'warned' that they are likely to be the worst hit - TOM/TCX's target long haul customers.
Try to imagine a shift in passengers from the top of the pyramid (higher class) to bottom (working class). Those used to flying BA J/F to BGI or MLE (completely random examples) may now decide that they can no longer afford that luxury and move to TOM/TCX to the same destinations. Those who once flew TCX/TOM in 'Star Class' (or whatever TCX offers) may decide they'll go short haul or long haul standard and the list carries on.
However short haul for TCX, TOM, MON etc. is becoming so much more competitive with LS and now U2 creeping into the market place and the other problems associated with charter flying in Europe.
In conclusion I completely agree with Shed-on-a-Pole in regards to short haul but I can see long haul being not so much affect - I may be wrong!
Next rumour is AI DEL-MAN
Would be fantastic for MAN but I think the question there lies:
How much more traffic can MAN push out going East?