eric + compton - I agree that there will always be *some* people who can afford a half-term trip with kids to the beach. That number will of course vary based on a number of factors. A short break can always be found somewhere - at the worst case, just take the week off work, and take the kids out each day somewhere locally in half-term. It's very possible to trade down a notch or two - so that a trip to the Canary Islands instead becomes a trip to somewhere a little more modest when flight costs increase. Perhaps that 9 hour flight to the mouse in Florida becomes a train trip to Eurodisney instead ? Still a break, still see the mouse, maybe not as warm, but most definitely cheaper.
Do you by any chance have year-on-year data for the February half-term week showing the change in numbers of visitors to Tenerife from the UK for example ?
Furthermore, most airlines will have bought fuel on the forward market rather than spot. The people on the beach right now will have purchased their flights based on fuel prices from (approx) summer / autumn 2010. Because most airlines tend not to pass on any new fuel charges to those who have already purchased their tickets, there is usually a lag of several months before a spike in the price of a barrel of crude oil affects the number of people observed building sandcastles on a Spanish beach
On a separate note - if you're wandering around the beach in Tenerife, what on earth are you doing posting at PPRuNe ?