Sorry to veer away from the consensus re SHED's post, but all his facts and eloquence then turn into opinion and speculation. There is much contradictory evidence to the effects of QE and a push to democracy could (and should) increase air travel from these regions. The removal of sanctions and trade restrictions to Libya, Iran and so on would benefit aviation for a start. I think SHED admits it is a gloomy outlook he presents and although very well argued, not necessarily the path that will emerge.