There has always been a vast number of people who would like to be an airline pilot, but the supply has historically been limited. This has now changed for a number of reasons:
- if you look at the eye sight requirements for 10 years ago versus now for the initial class 1, there are many more that are able to get a medical.
- traditional routes such as RAF and airline sponsorships had a much higher selection criteria than is now the case.
- pprune etc has allowed people who would otherwise have little understanding of the job of an airline pilot to fully understand how to become one (i.e. a not insignificant proportion of BA cadets had relatives in BA flightcrew)
- modular training has come to the forefront, allowing lots more people to realise their ambition without amassing nearly 1000 hours/ basic CPL route. In summary, this may be a much cheaper option now.
- supply of credit has enabled many students to embark straight onto integrated courses and get fatpl. This has become accepted, and parents willingly re-mortgage their houses, which just keeps the supply coming along nicely.
- integrated schools are now very commercial and will look to fill their boots with students, regardless of real demand.
- the demands of the training are not such to limit the supply of candidates. i.e. basic multi-choice atpl exams etc. Most people are able to pass get a fatpl (completely different question of being a good captain, but that is a risk with all exams).
- European workings regulations mean that there is much more movement and hence supply, i.e. RYR don't need Irish nationals etc.
Against this back-drop, demand has also crept up however with the locos etc recruiting strongly, and I could write a page on this but it is ultimately supply side factors that has led to this situation. It is not to do with pilots being responsible for 100s of people/life or death decisions etc.