Firstly, thanks to WWW for setting up this thread, I tried something similar a few days back, but it was probably too close to the events in NY, Washington and Pittsburg.
Wannabes need to have a full overview of the facts so that they (and only they) can make the right decisions for themselves. We are, afterall, supposed to be "captains of the future" and as such capable of deciding for ourselves what we do. I would raise a couple of points related to WWW's original post and the subsequent bunfight here:
1 - Don't count on the guys in decent jobs who can afford renewals being out of the job market. I'm in that position (only just, it still cripples the bank account but I'm keeping current), if a flying job comes up -
I'm off - I haven't come all this way and put all this work in not to pursue my ambitions. I am aware of the risks involved, I was before I took up flying training, I suggest I'm not the only one. I may in the near future do an instructors rating and instruct part time (evenings and weekends), again I don't think I'll be the only one.
2 - The job market is going to be more competitive, we are going to be coming up against experienced, professional aircrews, can't deny that. Now I can only look at that as being part of the challenge, as a 350 hours CPL/IR I have to look at it that way. Until recently Go, easyJet and Ryan were still taking a broad sweep of experience, with being able to fit the company culture a more important criteria. I understand that EZY and GO are concentrating on those with commercial experience now because of a lack of captains, but it won't stay that way forever.
3 - We ain't financial experts and we can't expect to be. I would suggest that even financial experts aren't in a position to predict what is going to happen, this is uncharted territory, will it go down, will it go up
who know's? Eddie George was on Breakfast with Frost yesterday morning stating that the current drop in spending is not due to a lack of consumer confidence, but more to do with the fact that we were all glued to our TV's, mouthes and eyes wide open, unable to believe what we were seeing. He predicted that most sectors would pick up fairly soon, in particular retail and the service sector, with "slightly longer term" effects in equity and the ailine industry. I know it's his job to do so but it was a fairly up beat message, and worth listening to.
4 - I'm gonna be a bit bitchy here, sorry, but wannabes who say things like "is it true I can only get easyJet becaue BA sponsorship has ceased?" clearly have
NO idea. I would suggest that EZY is not a compromise job - to think of it as second best is really going to work against you if you're applying there.
5 - Charter airlines - this time of year there aren't many bookings anyway. people don't start booking summer holidays until later in the year, that's why you see loads of holiday adverts over Xmas. Bookings may be down 28% for this time of year, but that's 28% of very little. Wait and see.
On friday I received an application form for a cargo airline, and I'm going to go for that job. As I say, it's going to be against tough competition but I can't roll over and let this beat me. I've come this far, I'm in it for the long haul (no pun intended), no matter how long it takes.
5 - WWW, thanks for no longer posting "gentlemen, this is not good" in every post. That was getting just a tad annoying.
And thanks to Tailscrape, Raw Data, IFR, Scroggs et al for saying it how they see it as well. A valuable debate, with well reasoned arguements all round.
Apart from the events in the USA themselves, I feel very sorry for those people losing their jobs and being told they aren't required during or before their courses (see the Britannia thread as one example). It must feel dreadful to have thought "I've made it" to have it taken away from you at such short notice. It is indicative of how cruel our chosen profession can be.
However, I think wait and see is the only solid advice that can be given right now.
Whatever you decide to do - I wish you all the best.
[ 24 September 2001: Message edited by: wallup ]