Mmmm
War on Iraq etc, well there is an obvious case example of the Gulf War and I don't think anyone needs to know how that hit the aviation industry.
As an economics grad, I do not get the bit about a war lowering the cost of oil. I remember a professor at University gleefully telling us that he was invited to a meeting about oil prices during the Gulf War. Many economists were sitting there stating extremely complicated theories and formulas, his answer was simple, it is supply and demand. Demand for oil is inelastic, supply is threatened so there will be a short term oil price hike. He was proved correct.
A war on Iraq will certainly not help the UK or USA economies, both have been surviving due to consumer expenditure. A war will affect consumer expenditure, and I would expect both economies to enter recession.
Business travel still hasn't fully recovered from Sept 11th, the holiday market is picking up, but that is partly related a) increasing confidence in air travel, b) consumption going around in the economy.
I honestly cannot believe that a war on Iraq can be positive for air travel or wannabes. I sadly can only see it increasing redundancies, leaving an experience available workforce , with new license holders miles back in the queue.
Sorry to be all gloom
Sagey