That's the point exactly.
If anyone had said in 1972 that Argentina would invade the Falklands, or in 1980 that Iraq would invade Kuwait, or in 1979 that the Berlin Wall would topple, or in 1929 that the Germans would invade Poland, or that Yugoslavia was going to violently break apart, then you'd have been rightly scornful.
The politicians keep telling us that this is a dangerous and unstable world, in which the threat is changing and dynamic.
And so we scale our defences to be able to cope with 2/3 of what we've most recently had to deal with.
Bloody madness. It's like the post Great War 'Ten Year Rule' all over again.
And with that in mind, I'd invert your list of air power priorities, because it looks like one that has been drawn up by someone viewing the requirement through the prism of the expeditionary war requirements of 1995-2005, and I'm not confident that they are necessarily the only future threat.
1. Land based AD1. You need to defend the UK and Falklands, and defence of the UK has to be the primary duty of Government. Whatever else you do, you might need to defend the forces you deploy.
2. CC and ISTAR, though UAVs are niche, and I'd sacrifice them if required
2nd equal. Land based CAS/BAI/Interdiction, though UAVs are niche, and I'd sacrifice them if required. Land-based because if Host Nation Support isn't available, my guess is that the op isn't politically tenable anyway, and if you can't get HNS, your carriers are going to be screwed for their port facilities, resupply, ISTAR and AAR.
4. AT/AAR.
5. SH. Mobility for whatever you deploy.
6. MPA/ASW.
7. Carrier based attack and AD, if and only if I can have enough of everything else, because while it's sometimes useful, it's niche, and seldom essential.