I do reckon that a valid prediction has never been easy, but right now it is outright fortune telling. We really have no clue where things are going, but if EASA get's their way, then the future is very bleak and probably outside of Europe.
Having said that, of course the developments in Europe itself will be very interesting in the the next several years, with the Euro in crisis and more and more countries starting to dissent, the question may well be in what political environment we shall live? Will they sort it out or will the EU be a thing of the past?
What I do see for Aviation is mixed. In one way, there is a lot of development going on in all areas, but especcially our light plane industry. Most of it however is experimental or LSA/VLA. The problem of exorbitant cost for certified aircraft will remain one of the biggest obstacles to a renewed fleet.
Yet, there would be a lot to do and accomplish. How about a nice 2 seater with some 1000 NM range, 150 kt speed and a payload that allows full fuel and two realistic folks and their bags below 1000 kg MTOW? One guy at Czec Aircraft (Sport Cruiser) said it could be done easily, maybe they will do it?
Whereas Airports and their problems with noise and hostile neighbours are concerned, I believe European Aviation has to become much more agressive in the fight against green and left politicians who use us as prawns in a game for more votes. We do have to come up as a single voice, not unlike AOPA US does in the USA, not as many small voices in the dark. We have to bring forward campaings such as the ones showing folks like Travolta or Harrison Ford and others openly standing in for Aviation. Why doesn't that work in Europe? Are the people who do fly and are famous at the same time not dare to step out or has just nobody thought about it? We need much more agressive forms of making it clear to Joe Voter what the consequences of suffocating General Aviation will be.
-Who should train the future Pilots even for the airlines?
-Who should train pilots for Air Rescue and other such venues?
-Where do they think the pilots which fly them to their holidays come from when GA is gone in Europe? Will the punters feel comfortable if we need to hire folks from India, Asia in general or the US only to fly European airliners because it is no longer feasible to do it here?
The German car industry hired a
PR guy who managed to turn the horrible rep of these companies around in less than a year, convincing everyone that counts that they are now saving the planet. I reckon that is the kind of guy aviation needs badly.
All in all we face two scenarios. One in which EASA will regulate Aviation to death, where there will be no private flying anymore at all but if there is any light aviation left, it will be organized in state run aeroclubs or by the military. We will go back to state run aviation schools to satisfy demand of the airlines and the military. In short, we will have what the Soviets had during their time, a fully state controlled aviation environment where pilots will be chosen by merit, party association, favours and luck.
Or the other if organized resistence finally gets a hold and a grip on things and stops the maniacs which are about to destroy 100 years of aviation for petty bureaucracy and power. General Aviation needs a voice, a loud and clear voice, which can make it brutally clear what the consequences of the actions by these people will be.
Best regards
AN2 driver (well, former, as EASA has taken that possibility away already)