Spannersatcx,
Whilst I understand you work for CX, how are you so sure CX wont open a MAN route in the medium term?
The transfer at LHR numbers have been hovering around 138000 for a couple of years now, and were no far off that when they 'launched' HKG-DME-MAN.
As more people become savvy to the fact there are more options than LHR, CX and oneworld will stat to loose pax through filtration.
As well as those travelling on BA/bmi to LHR, you have those going through DXB, AUH, DOH, FRA, AMS, CDG, ZRH and to a lesser extent SIN.
Another point to consider MAN has now been included in the UK/Taiwan agreement, and with a large amount of pax heading that way it could be another hole CX will bleed pax through.
Add to this oneworld carrier are now gaining ATI, it means there could be more pax travelling through LHR from the likes of ORD and other ports without a direct connection (I know ORD isnt the best example but just trying to illustrate a point).
Surely it would be better to run some of the extremly high Northern customers through MAN and save the LHR services for the south east and other connections.
Even if the pax are lower yielding, a 2 class service could work, and with such a large cargo operation im sure the belly can stem any losses?
Looking at it logically, Its not as crazy as you think.