There are two sets of numbers which the MPL graduates will generate. The first is the cost. To a great extent, our bean counting friends have virtually eliminated initial licence and type training as a cost - most prospective employees have already paid for this. So there are no savings here for many operators. So the MPL will only really appeal to those airlines who foot the bill for cadet training. And it is amongst these airlines that the secondary cost will be felt. The price of smoking holes. We have already had bent metal generated by a P2F scheme.
May I also suggest that MPL will only work if the the bod in the LHS seat is a 'real' captain and as a crew fly the aircraft under real LOFT conditions. Only the route should be announced beforehand and certainly not the WX or the failures. Flying well documented and pre-rehearsed failures in the sim. should always result in reasonable outcomes. Unfortunately, real life is so unfair. The real poo often arrives in well disguised packets and sorting it out often requires creative uses of checklists, interesting decisions and above all a certain degree of airmanship. To fast track the guy in the RHS requires the victim to absorb a great deal of experience in very little time. The good news is, it is very difficult to hide a large aircraft prang, so we'll all find out how good the MPL system is before long. I just hope nobody gets hurt while the MPL holders learn to fly.