Hi MUFC_fan,
I will address only the points you raised relating to my own posting. Obviously, I will leave it to Skipness to address the concerns you raised regarding his postings.
Firstly, on the point that the railways have played a significant role in the reduction of MAN-LHR passenger numbers, I agree with you. My 10:47 posting in reply to GrahamK acknowledges this. I did not refer to the railway angle in my response to Skipness because the issue under discussion was QANTAS/Jetstar - a rather different topic. In fact, the reductions in BA capacity bit during the Rod Eddington era, and largely BEFORE the completion of the WCML upgrade, although I acknowledge the impact of the improved rail services since then.
On the original QF/Jetstar issue, my point is that the opportunity to avoid LHR transfers ex-MAN is compelling for travelers from this catchment area. The market share taken by the likes of EK/QR/EY/SQ demonstrate this fact clearly. You may enjoy LHR transfers (fair enough, each to their own!) but in the case of MAN-LHR-Australia services with QANTAS (the subject under discussion between Skipness and myself) a T5/T3 transfer is required. That is not attractive to me. (DXB, DOH or AUH will do me just fine). But more importantly, in order to transfer at LHR (even entirely using T5) you must first reach there. From my past experiences, I no longer have trust in BA to actually operate my connecting MAN-LHR Shuttle on the day - they frequently cancel.
Based on the above, it is my contention that if QANTAS is serious about attracting MAN-originating customers in volume, a Jetstar service direct from MAN competing head-to-head with EK/QR/EY/SQ represents their best chance of success. If they opt to rely on connecting flights via LHR, they will remain a bit-part player in the MAN-Australia market (but that is their choice to make). I still recall the period when QANTAS used to operate a QF-liveried BAe146 on MAN-LHR to connect with the B744 service; it frequently left with embarrassingly poor loads. I seriously doubt that the number of passengers on the BA A319's transiting through LHR to Australia has risen significantly since then. The intervening period has seen substantial expansion in capacity available from MAN with the aforementioned Gulf carriers and we KNOW that they have enjoyed thriving demand (in a finite market) between MAN and Australia.
On the third section you have extracted from my posting I find myself slightly puzzled. I'm unclear what your objection is in this case. In asking "could it not happen again?", do you mean in terms of QF becoming a force on services ex-MAN? If so, my response is they can if Jetstar competes head-on with the alternatives ex-MAN, but they will continue to underperform their brand potential if they [QF] rely on LHR transfers alone.
Speaking purely for myself, my records show that I have flown with QANTAS on 22 occasions. But my QF frequent flyer card has been gathering dust in a drawer for a very long time - ever since they pulled MAN services. Quite simply, they are no longer useful to me. Etihad and Emirates are. I am not alone. And that is the issue which QF must choose to address or ignore. I guess it will all come down to yield calculations at the final reckoning (fair enough). If they stick with LHR transfers they won't be seeing me. OneLondon Alliance codeshare deals don't impress me! If Jetstar offers Manchester-Australia direct ... now that will prompt me to reconsider!
Cheers, SHED.