Gentlemen,
I agree that banning the circle-to-land on 12 is reflexive, not thought-through and perhaps a little emotional.
I also agree that IF flown correctly it is perfectly safe.
But if we apply that stricture/caveat to all approaches there would never be an accident on approach. Fly it by the book and by the numbers and you will be fine.
That is self-evident.
That procedure has risks. IF not flown 'perfectly', there will be an accident some day.
Murphy's Law.
I always had that lingering worry in the back of my mind. I thought I was this doomsday fatalist.
When I heard of the accident I KNEW it was the circle-to-land on 12.
You are far away from high ground if you are capturing the ILS to 30 coming in from the Lahore/Jehlum side or coming in from the west (from overhead Kabul and Peshawar) and flying the pattern as depicted on the chart for the ILS-30.
The PIA forum says that many residents heard the surge of power before the explosion. I said that our most-decorated fighter pilot said that on TV and some here said that was not true. Why?
He was not a commercial pilot but I respect his flying credentials. He said the aircraft passed over-head his house in Islamabad and he heard the surge of power.
I think there is one point that has not been discussed.
Experience in-type.
I have the impression that the pilot was new on the A321. Nothing like the 747 that he must have been so comfortable with. Some of the old-timers in PIA flew those things for 15-17 years. There are airmen here so I don't need to elaborate on the sharp differences.
The co-pilot was even newer in-type. This is not an F-16 though the side-stick must have felt very natural.
Then you have the cultural thing of a 25,000 hour very senior captain and a "new-be" in the right seat, half his age with a tenth of his flight hours. You are unlikely to speak up and say to him he is going to kill everyone if he does not immediately bank hard left or execute a GA.
It is all very well for us to say he should have pushed the side stick priority button and taken over. It does not work that way. Not in the west; and certainly not in the east.
Airblue needs to do a better job of pairing.
Thanks for the link. I found the article very interesting and I will pursue the references as well.
BOAC, the arc is certainly not 12 miles since he crashed at 9.5! You have to keep her tight and close and in sight.
I have been unable to find a description of the procedure although the approach chart for the ILS-30 has the minima for circle-to-land.
Yes, I suppose it could be called "home grown" but there must be something written since many foreign airlines come into OPRN.
One additional point. The captain was very religious and the previous night was a deeply religious one and he could have been up ALL night praying. He also could be fasting. I have known PIA (and other Muslim-nation pilot's I am sure) to fast -- certainly during Ramadan -- and fly.
That is a deadly combination but how do you check it? There are no pre-flight tests for fasting!
This could be crucial for his level of alertness and reflexes -- or may be not.
A (retired) Air Marshall of the PAF has come out with an article in the papers. Nothing new, really.
I am surprised that no commercial pilot, active or retired, has put forth his views. However, the President of the Pakistan Airline Pilot's Association did say that "fatigue" was a factor. The MD of Airblue said Capt. Choudhry had 36 hours of rest before this flight.
Take your pick.