PJ - I think that image would be of great interest but I fear the 'obscuration' you have applied is a bit too effective
Do I take it from your 'theory' that we have a definite crash location and direction of travel at impact? It is the '330-340' track I cannot understand, having (supposition) terminated the ILS at around 2 1/2 - 3 nm, continued towards the field and then turned right (330-340?), presumably aiming to fly a visual downwind on a track of 300. You are 'permitted' under circling rules to 'lose sight' of the airfield during the turn, but in the prevailing vis it would have needed to be a reasonably tight downwind to keep the airfield in sight in the reported vis with probable heavy showers dotted around too. Not ideal to say the least. Any ideas? As GG has said, loads of 'runway like' roads but unless spatially disorientated the heading should give it away immediately. Also an ex-mil F/O would surely have been getting the hairs on his neck standing up a bit?
Meekal has also 'gone silent' on my requests for these 'procedures' for circling on 12 he spoke of in #93 and #100 and his mention of a 'back course' for R12. Presumably, as I said earlier, 'home grown' and unofficial, but they might cast more light on this.
Lastly, and more of interest than speculation, the projected track' from datum to crash site almost exactly overlays the outbound hold.
Edit: Do we have a crash site elevation?