What you have to understand is that in a lot of public sector organisations you will not be blamed for not making a mistake. You will be fired pretty damn quickly if a mistake gets the organisation on to the front page of the Daily Mail.
That is why decision-makers err on the side of safety. You will always hear the phrase "Safety is Paramount".
Well, no it isn't actually. The concept of safety is always bent when it comes up against big bucks.
Remember John Prescott after the train smashes following privatisation of the industry. His promise to do whatever it took to put in automatic braking systems didn't last long
The Environment Agency had to change its mantra to something like
Best Available Solution without incurring additional costs - someone will have the correct phrase.
The Met Office being boffins are generally research scientists and they work in probabilities. They don't take a view as to how the probabilities should be applied. Applied science is 'grease-monkey' stuff and left to the horny-handed sons of toil.
In time we need some honesty from our leaders and the organisations that support them. They need to take some responsibility for their information.
As with last year's BBQ summer and warm winter prediction, it is all very well telling us what their data tells them, but they get into real trouble when the tabloids start using their predictions.
Actually its the same with the issue of aviation forecasts. What we think they are delivering to us is not what they are sending us.
This latest event should now start a debate in the halls of the mighty about changing their attitude to 'acceptable risk'. But I'm not holding my breath