I say you should neither be too negative nor too positive about job prospects. Really it is as much to do with the person you see in the mirror in the morning that ultimately decides your fate.
I do agree with Scroggs that this pilot shortage thing is a bit of a myth. There will never be a shortage of 200hr fAtpl holders whilst people are prepared to spend up to 70k on their own training. Then it is supply and demand, and obviously the former would be far greater than the latter (in the short term) if the recessional pressure bites hard.
I used to think along the lines of yes it would be good to walk into a job with 200 hours. HELLO WAKE UP!!! Yes we have all read the people posting here who have walked into their 737’s on low hours, but they are the exceptions to the rule. They do show that it can be done, if a whole lot of circumstances happen to be right. Of course nobody bothers every time they get the PFO, as these would rapidly become dull to read. The only luck involved for them is that they have timed their training to perfection to coincide with a marketplace desperate for good low hour candidates. This will not be the case for much longer many people say.
I suggest anybody contemplating this venture need to plan for, as a minimum, a year’s worth of instruction after licence issue and if you cannot tolerate this do not get involved, as you will be taking a huge risk.
I appreciate that not every commercial pilot wants to step back into a light aircraft during his or her time off, but personally I feel that this is an excellent way to maintain the raw seat of the pants flying experience. My attitude may change in due course, but I can see PPL instruction being a very enjoyable activity as an aside to commercial flying, which offers a completely different set of challenges. A modern pilot’s role is becoming more and more a logistics manager, and I would also like to keep the raw skills honed. Let’s face it you can’t do stall turns in a 737!
So don’t knock instruction. Have a think about what you want to achieve. I used to be of the walk straight into job attitude. I now am really looking forward to doing instruction; think how rewarding it will be to teach your skills to others.
You cannot control the world economy. You can make sure you are suitable for the job you are going for. Why not try the sponsorships if you are young enough – if nothing else you will find out how you fare in the world of psychometrics, which you will end up needing to be good at if your are to get ahead of Joe Average. If not then consider Gapan. Remember 50k is a great commitment. Do you have a desk job you could do maybe even part time, or work as a consultant, when you have qualified to bolster the finances? If you have passed through all these checks then you are going to be in a far better position than many.
World aviation will continue to grow. Long-term prospects are excellent. Ride through the (hopefully) short-term recession, and endeavour to be one of the best candidates out there, not just another.
Bow5, in short I will be more self-funded than I will borrow, as I was saving up for an imaginary house. I don’t see any reason why borrowing the money should disadvantage you except maybe a few more sleepless nights. I assume that you are able to borrow as much money as you would need? I do admire you courage though – it is a hell of a burden to take on. Not being airline material will be a far bigger hindrance IMHO.
I leave you with this.
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”. (Sir Winston Churchill)
Happy flying.