I have never subscribed to the notion of a 'pilot shortage', ether in the past, now, or in the future. Such shortages as there are, or will be, are of experienced, type-rated jet pilots. There is no liklihood of there being a demand for all the 200-hour fATPLs the system can churn out - and that's when all is well!
The next 12-24 months are likely to be very hard for any industry that offers a luxury product - that is, something that most people don't need. Holidays and foreign travel most certainly come under that banner, and that's probably 50% of all the air traffic out of UK. The rest is business travel, much of which is not strictly necessary and a lot of which is more expensive than it needs to be (at the choice of the businessman, it has to be said). Businesses are already retrenching, and the business travel sector has shrunk and moved down-market as a result. Consumers haven't yet been seriously worried by the prospects of unemployment, so the holiday market has held up well, but that won't last. With the unremitting cries of 'RECESSION' from all the media, consumers will start to rein in their spending and the service industries will start to hurt - and aviation will be in serious pain!
If the underlying world economy is in fact fairly sound, and I think for the most part it is, then businesses will soon realise that they can actully afford to invest to chase future profits and the seige mentality will lift in a relatively short time - say 8-12 months. Business travel will pick up again in the same timescale. The consumer will allow another 6 months or so of improving news to go by before he/she starts loosening the purse-strings, and we start getting the leisure customers back. So I think we're looking at a 12-18 month slowdown, during which jobs will be scarce.
However, God help us all if they start discovering fundamental problems with major economies (like they have in Japan - they've been in recession or stagnation for 10 years!). Keep your fingers crossed!