AOA was clear in 2000 and 2001, Cathay management needed to be punished, to be shown that the AOA wasn’t toothless. A “militant” committee seemed to look forward to, and welcomed a showdown, blaming a lack of industrial muscle for the 93 and 99 contracts. Goal posts in negotiations shifted from rosters to remuneration & benefits. The AOA RP negotiation team withdrew their offer to CX in May 2001, on the basis that that AOA now had the upper hand, so should go for more than rostering.
The new demands were well thought out, something for everyone in the AOA, whatever scale or base, to ensure all onside. The LIA was well planned, well thought out, and well executed. A rational management would work out that the new contract would cost X, the LIA Y, and once Y> X, would cave in. That’s how it works in the States. Captain Demery said himself “it will end when someone high up in the organization will say “This is stupid and inefficient, its costing us money…”
So, a year or so ago the AOA turned down a “best and final offer” from CX management. Not only was it turned down, but full page newspaper adverts were in the papers ridiculing Swire management, questioning the right for a UK based firm to run a HK airline, thus ensuring that any residual goodwill London might feel for “their boys” evaporated. In a face based society, delivering a public insult to the top wasn’t the best idea. Especially when the LIA strategy depended on someone senior in the organisation stepping in…
One problem emerged. CX management wasn’t rational. X and Y would never be calculated. The CX negotiating team had reported back that the AOA wanted everything on the wish list, no compromise likely
AOA newsletters predicted victimisation, promised retaliation and full support, with no resolution to the dispute until all victims were reinstated, with back pay. Two out of three happened – the retaliation didn’t happen. CX essentially called out the AOA, and the AOA blinked, not shutting down the airline.
The committee was then somewhat lost. The coalition for LIA, built on something for everyone, wasn’t enough for anyone to risk losing their job over, especially after the company imposed a pay increase. The issues left were the 49’ers, and a more abstract one of how should the company be run. Again, neither of which would be enough for the majority to stick their neck out over, so a ban on upgrades wouldn’t stick. The only thing left was a ban on recruitment, retreat, and hope that the company would overreach itself, pushing enough pilots to the point of no return when LIA could be effective again.
Jumping at the chance, the company did the opposite. The slowdown in the economy after 911 allowed rosters (the main point of friction for a pilot on a day to day basis) to be relaxed, improving most guys quality of life. Recruitment was stepped up, to catch the AOA in a bear squeeze. New recruits can’t join the AOA, and as senior captains continue to retire, the AOA income base will decline (of course, some senior pilots had already calculated that even if the AOA won, the improved benefits would never offset the 4-5% levy to the AOA given the short time they have left, so aren’t paying anyway) If the AOA returns to LIA before the majority of the crew are willing to lay their jobs on the line, the risk is the ranks of the 49’ers will swell, putting more financial strain.
In summary, at some point the AOA decided to make the dispute about “how, and who runs an airline” rather than just R&RB. CX decided to try and turn the AOA back to a flying club, and training ground for future managers, because to question “how, and who runs an airline” is to question the whole legitimacy of the post ’97 compromise between Swire and CAAC.
So the standoff continues, with a group of 400 or so non AOA pilots, about 500 AOA members who just wish none of this had ever happened, 500 AOA members who are watching their bucket of !!!!! fill up, and 300 AOA members who will do what it takes to get revenge.
My prediction? Non AOA numbers will increase, as new recruits come in and AOA fence sitters throw in the towel. The “bucket” guys will slowly leave, or (if the rosters stay loose) will become fence sitters. The 300 will hate the company they work for always and forever.
So, new joiners will face a core of hatred, but most will either just view them with disdain, or be sympathetic.