Looks like the stretch version may be back in consideration . . . from today's Airline Transport World.
Bernstein: 787-10 could be back on the table
Airline Transport World
Wednesday March 31, 2010
by Geoffrey Thomas
Boeing's proposed 787-10 stretch may be back on the radar as the 787 and 747-8 programs are retiring risk, according to a new report from New York-based Bernstein Research.
The report, released yesterday, also highlights concerns that the 787 may be falling behind on its flight test hr., although Boeing remains within the margin to enable the first three aircraft to be delivered to ANA by year end.
Following meetings with Boeing management, Bernstein said the manufacturer is "more confident about potential 787 weight reduction, which has made the second stretch airplane, the 787-10, again a possibility." The research group noted that it "does not know specifically where the 787 stands on weight" but that Boeing expressed confidence that later airplanes will meet performance requirements.
"One measure of progress on the 787's weight is that management is again looking at the possibility of a second stretch, i.e., a 787-10," Bernstein stated. It sees the derivative, along with a 777 rework, as part of the manufacturer's response to the A350-1000.
It is generally accepted that the 787-8 was overdesigned for a high margin of error on structure and lightning protection. The view at Boeing "is that there should be substantial potential to take out structural weight," Bernstein said. Airlines originally were pushing for a 50-seat stretch over the 787-9 with identical 8,500-nm. range, while Boeing wanted a straight payload/range trade with a 7,000-nm. range (ATWOnline, July 10, 2007).
The Bernstein report raised concerns about rework given that 30 787s and 15 747-8s will be complete before certification programs are concluded. It noted that "the potential for significant rework still exists on both programs. The discovery last week in 747-8 test flight of buffeting due to airflow over the landing gear door is an example." That problem, however, is regarded as minor.
It said the overall risk of substantial rework on the 787 has come down significantly after successful flutter/stability control flight tests and structural static wing tests (ATWOnline, March 30).