If you look at CO's operations, they are: daily to BRS, GLA, BHX, BFS and 2 daily to MAN and EDI. So they are offering 2752 seats on a daily basis from the regions. This is in addition to the 4 daily into LHR from the end of this month (which goes to 5 daily from October) which I believe is going to be something like 1 764s and 3 757s for summer (or around 1502 seats). In other words 4254 seats on the New York-Britain sector.
BA has 6 JFK services (think it's normally 2 747 and 4 777s) and 2 EWR service (both 777s) or around 3912 seats available from LHR. Have assumed 4-class aircraft for all services.
The benefit that we have in the regions is feeding into CO's hub at EWR with a travel time saving instead of going to LHR so it becomes a trade-off for the UK passenger (particulary for business class) of whether the extra luxury of F class is worth the extra time and price. They also
When we add in the rest of the States from the regions, we are only adding US on MAN-PHL and GLA-PHL, AA on MAN-JFK and MAN-ORD, and DL on MAN-ATL and MAN-JFK. Compare that to the rest of the transatlantic network ex-LHR for BA. The regions will always have to look at getting a carrier based in the States to provide the link which will normally be to their home hub only (and at the moment primarily linking into MAN) except in the following manner.
The one thing that an immunized BA and AA can offer the UK regions is the ablity to market themselves as a single carrier and could open up the prospects for more routes which would reduce the dependence on routing everyone through LHR because as it stands, BA would feel the effects of AA plying to the regions (one of the reasons why AA's MIA-MAN didn't prosper was the reluctance of BA to codeshare the service even though they were at liberty to do so as they believed it would impact on thier own MIA-LHR service). I would hope that in 5 years time, BHX would regain its ORD links with a prospect for JFK, with GLA or EDI having the same. NCL may yet see AA with a JFK link which would operate instead of cancelling before it begins. For MAN, up to 6 flights a day.