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Old 19th Mar 2010, 21:29
  #64 (permalink)  
Rushed Approach
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: London, UK
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The argument that 70% of aircraft accidents is due to pilot error is one which I have always thought is a great credit to pilots as a whole. If you compare flying with road transport, over 95% of accidents are due to driver error. So road transport ought to be the first mode of transport that gets the driverless treatment.

I think in time there will certainly be one pilot aeroplanes operating large commercial flights - the technology will surely exist to fly the aircraft remotely from the ground in the event the on board pilot keels over - a job for the "duty pilot"?

I don't buy the argument that pilots save the day many times on a daily basis that you never get to hear about. This is true, but the on board computers would do exactly the same, so this is not a deciding factor.

The fact is that computers could probably fly aeroplanes more safely than pilots can (and I say this with a couple of decades of airline experience and a vested interest in this not turning out to be true). Yes there will be the odd occasion (e.g. Hudson) where the computer states that an exception has occurred and everyone dies, but those very few occasions will be countered by it not flying into the side of a hill every so often when it gets confused about the navaids it's supposed to be using, because it won't. Likewise it will not press on in poor weather, but will simply divert when the intended destination weather falls below a pre-determined threshold. It won't be able to even move off the gate with ice on the wings. It knows the recall actions for unreliable airspeed and has all the data in its memory to get safely through the pitot icing incident without getting disorientated, flustered or even slightly worried.

In effect, all the decisions that we make as pilots every day can be programmed into a computer that never has a bad day, is always objective and dispassionate, and never gets tired or runs out of hours to bring the jet back.

There will be pax opposition of course to start with (not to mention pilot opposition), but like all new technology people will simply get used to it in the end.

We're probably talking 15-20 years mind, but it will come.
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