Eddy
I respect your careful approach and open mind.
With the evidence before me I believe that the sun will rise tomorrow. This is based on a lifetimes experience and a crude grasp of astronomical principles. Most decisions are harder to make. In fact some of my judgements about the honesty or otherwise of a lot of statements made about this dispute eventually come down to evaluating probabilities and past history. (I am reminded yet again by. "Well, he would say that wouldn't he").
Don't you think that track record counts for a lot here!
We will, I think, not ever be completely certain even when the history books have been published, most of the CC directly involved will not be able to wait that long, and some will need to make a decision now.