This summer there is plenty of flying going on.
Most airlines will be making good money and the worst fears post Sept11th are retreating.
There are therefore noises coming out of various airlines about recruitment in the Autumn. I can see all the experienced crews laid off post Sept from the likes of Gill, Virgin, Brit World, BMI et al all being back in airline employment by Christmas.
However I would worry about things then slowing right back down.
Lets face it there are interest rate hikes inbound and a property market making a lot of people very very jittery. A percent on the base rate by Christmas is possible and this will take a lot of discretionary spending out of the market, i.e. when you fret about the mortgage you don't go on second holidays or weekend breaks.
Manufacturing is on its backside and recent gains in output seem to be petering out as the USA stagnates. Mr Browns tax hikes are due to hit next April and the stock market is going nowhere fast for quite some time.
The underlying fundamentals therefore are not great for the next year or so in my highly speculative opinion.
The Charters have millions of unsold holidays on the shelf. The low costers are now reaching saturation in the UK and further growth will be on the continent. The full service carriers are seeing recovery in loads through reduced capacity but those high yielding pax are few and far between.
I did think that we might see a dramatic bounce back from Sept 11. Now I think we are much more likely to see a repeat of the early 1990's. Recovery will be spread over a couple of 3 years.
My advice remains to avoid large training bills associated with Integrated courses if you are not already committed. Gradually adding ratings and hours WHILST keeping a job outside of aviation would seem me to be the most intelligent strategy for the next 12 months.
I currently believe there to be around 800 CPL/IR Frzn ATPL holders in the UK with <500hrs.
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