All this speculation, it will happen when it happens.
Monarchs older fleets will be replaced (running/fuel cost will force this), how and where the new aircraft are used will be determined by market forces and management at the time.
MOD work will come and go with quite a few of the 330's leased out with a recall clause to civil operators, who will no doubt be asked to crew them in the support role if and when required.
Air Tanker will be flying their tanking patterns and crewing some forward ops such as the Falklands and higher risk destinations with a dedicated fleet.
Both Civil and Military ops are and will still have some severe budget constraints and with fuel costs only likely to rise it won't get easier for anyone.
Thats my take on it.
