Sounds like he has a realistic grasp of the situation. Whilst anybody applies a western mindset to a tribal conflict there will never be progress. To be quite honest, when conflict is part of your culture, the only way a slowly introduced change can occur is from within. ie Peace because the Afghans, (all of them), want it, not because external influence demands it.
FWIW I believe that the real problems lay in the Pakistan military arsenal. The rest has a degree of smoke and mirrors to it. ....and I have not heard of the price of Heroin going through the roof through lack of supply.