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Afghanistan Unwinnable - Milliband

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Afghanistan Unwinnable - Milliband

Old 24th Jan 2010, 08:47
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Afghanistan Unwinnable - Milliband

I'm watching the Andrew Marr Show, and I believe that I just heard the Foreign Secretary say that we will never win the military battle in Afghanistan!

Did I hear correctly or should I wash my ears out?
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 09:17
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Sounds like he has a realistic grasp of the situation. Whilst anybody applies a western mindset to a tribal conflict there will never be progress. To be quite honest, when conflict is part of your culture, the only way a slowly introduced change can occur is from within. ie Peace because the Afghans, (all of them), want it, not because external influence demands it.

FWIW I believe that the real problems lay in the Pakistan military arsenal. The rest has a degree of smoke and mirrors to it. ....and I have not heard of the price of Heroin going through the roof through lack of supply.
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 10:19
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Standing by to be corrected but I think he meant that the solution for UK security re Afghanistan is not simply military, ie there has to be stable and effective government there (didn't hear the "D" word though!) assisted by us. Perhaps more interesting though was fellow guest Rory Stewart who presented "The Legacy of Lawrence of Arabia" prog on BBC2 the previous evening. He says that all US Army officers going there study Lawrence and think that he had the key to successful insurgency warfare in foreign territory. Stewart believes that they miss the point, that Lawrence firmly believed that you should proceed with great care when involving yourself with others' culture, religion and sense of identity, that their beliefs are paramount and above all there comes a time when you should desist in further interference but instead leave them to manage their own affairs. I found his prog interesting, focussing as it did on the collusion post WW1 of France and the UK to effectively colonise the territories that Faisal and Lawrence had helped wrest from the Ottoman Empire. The bitterness that ensued led to Lawrence serving for 11 years as an Airman in the RAF and also to the "Middle East Situation" of today. Milliband merely perpetuates the FO position.
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 10:27
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It was excellent. Can't wait to see the next episode.

Lawrence first used the term "Insurgent" and of course he was using the term to decribe his own actions. It's several years since I last read "The seven pillars of wisdom" but I think Lawrence mentioned that fighting insurgents was like trying to eat soup with a fork. It's slow, messy and you will never complete the task.

The Americans in the film may have been reading their Lawrence, but I'm not convinced they understand it.





Milliband has been studying his history and has obviously understood it as well.
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 10:47
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Milliband said the final solution would need to be political, not military. Quite right.
He is still a little boy in a mans job though.
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 12:10
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I think the Boy Scout is talking about the next UK election.

By the way, for "Afghanistan" just add "Pakistan" where much of the Taliban manpower and logistics is coming from
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 12:54
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Milliband is largely correct, if there's not a major shift in tactics. The inedible truth is, that the Karzai Govt is utterly corrupt; is ineffective; has virtually no measureable control outside Kabul; and the Afghan people generally despise him and his Govt.

It's just like 'Nam all over again, where a corrupt, ruthless, out-of-touch puppet Govt., was supported by the Americans - and it was incapable of standing alone without vast amounts of US$'s and political support. All the time, the Yanks fought a ruthless, skilled and determined enemy.

Many of the Afghans are happy with the Taliban system of governing. Vicious, harsh and ruthless as they are; in areas where they have control, they have a form of Govt that is effective in settling disputes; they tax locals with a degree of consultation, and they have support from many locals.
The expert that suggested, a while back, that a coalition with the more moderate elements of the Taliban will be needed to develop effective Govt, and reconstruction in Afghanistan, may have been right. He spoke of a coalition that sidelined the radicals, rather than fight them to a standstill.

Add in large Ethnic divisions (Pashtun, Tajik & Uzbek), that cover language, culture, and long-standing suspicions of the other groups - that prevent unity - and you have a real handful to sort out. It will take a lot of work and a few good leaders with foresight to work out the solution to Afghanistan. I don't see any of those leaders appearing, right at the present moment.

Never forget, that never in the history of the country, has any Western (or Eastern) force won there, with a lasting success. In every case, the "invaders" were repelled, and the Afghan tribes won.

The US-led Coalition and the Campaign Against the Taliban | Singapore Institute of International Affairs
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 18:50
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Heads up for the show, here is the link : BBC iPlayer - The Andrew Marr Show: 24/01/2010
and for The Legacy of Lawrence of Arabia (Pt2): BBC iPlayer - The Legacy of Lawrence of Arabia: Episode 2
And ditto Pt 1:BBC - BBC Two Programmes - The Legacy of Lawrence of Arabia, Episode 1
Sorry, seems to have been shelved!

Last edited by Chugalug2; 24th Jan 2010 at 19:06. Reason: Pt 1 link inop
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 20:34
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The Foreign Secretary may have been brushing up on his history...!

13th January 1842 - Dr William Brydon, stumbled exhausted from his horse into the arms of the British garrison in Jalalabad, the last survivor of a British and Indian force once four and a half thousand strong, systematically slaugthered by Ghilzai tribesmen on an ill-fated attempt to retreat from Kabul to India.
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 20:51
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An interesting and mature thread which I find somewhat unusual for PPRUNE in recent times, what has been happening! I thought that Rory Stewarts paper on Afghanistan 'The Irresistible Illusion' was very inciteful, worth a read if you have time (somebody post it to the PM!)

LRB · Rory Stewart · The Irresistible Illusion
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Old 24th Jan 2010, 22:45
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OT, I'm pleased for you that you are impressed by both the thread and Rory Stewart's article, but forgive me if I cannot share your enthusiasm. The first is still on its first page which may well be its last. The second is the most self satisfied piece of undergrad thesis style (useful for a dodgy dossier?). Personally I would not find it amiss in the very publication that it goes out of its way to deride:
suggestive enough of crude moral imperatives to attract the Daily Mail
If Stewart has decided that he talks (as a TV Presenter) better than he writes, then good call, don't give up the day job, and leave writing to...well the likes of T.E.Lawrence!
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Old 25th Jan 2010, 17:44
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Chugalug, I am sorry that you do not share my enthusiasm for Mr Stewart; you did just post a world of links to his TV shows, however. I would rather listen to Stewart than the majority of MPs for Stewart has lived with the people whom we attempt to engage, I didn’t see Milliband walking across Afghanistan (cheap swipe, I know!). I am not overly impressed by Stewart‘s foray into TV or politics but I understand his frustration at feeling that he is not appreciated or listened to, as you so aptly demonstrate. I’m sure that you follow people that I dislike and vice versa, Stewart speaks sense but also listens, something that our arrogant foreign office seems to struggle with.
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Old 25th Jan 2010, 17:55
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Chugalug, I am sorry that you do not share my enthusiasm for Mr Stewart; you did just post a world of links to his TV shows, however. I would rather listen to Stewart than the majority of MPs for Stewart has lived with the people whom we attempt to engage, I didn’t see Milliband walking across Afghanistan (cheap swipe, I know!). I am not overly impressed by Stewart‘s foray into TV or politics but I understand his frustration at feeling that he is not appreciated or listened to, as you so aptly demonstrate. I’m sure that you follow people that I dislike and vice versa, Stewart speaks sense but also listens, something that our arrogant foreign office seems to struggle with.
.
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Old 25th Jan 2010, 18:24
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This is probably the best documentary footage in Afghanistan. Nothing like Afghan forces so high on hashish that they fire all thie ammo into the air. This is just part 1 of a 2 part series.

Inside Afghanistan 1 of 2 - VBS News | VBS.TV
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Old 25th Jan 2010, 22:29
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Op Twenty:
I understand his frustration at feeling that he is not appreciated or listened to, as you so aptly demonstrate.
Well you may be right, OT, that I demonstrate such a lack of appreciation. I do not criticise what Rory Stewart says, or even writes. I was criticising his literary style. I even used the "s" word! I found his prose turgid and convoluted. In contrast I found his TV style easy and convincing. If his message is that we have no business in Afghanistan and should leave forthwith he needs to say just that, more or less, as often and as pithily as possible. In a nutshell his piece lacked pith! As Frankie Howard would then say, "Pith, Missus, Pith! Oh well, please yourselves!".
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Old 25th Jan 2010, 22:37
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That'll be Frankie Howerd
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Old 25th Jan 2010, 22:41
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"Rory Stewarts paper on Afghanistan 'The Irresistible Illusion' was very inciteful"

I'm still trying to work out whether or not that was an intentional slip!
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Old 25th Jan 2010, 22:43
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The Foreign Secretary may have been brushing up on his history...!

Looks about the right age for third year modern history. Good luck with the GCSE's David.
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Old 26th Jan 2010, 17:23
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The bit I found interesting from Stewart was the following

Even if – as seems most unlikely – the Taliban were to take the capital, it is not clear how much of a threat this would pose to US or European national security. Would they repeat their error of providing a safe haven to al-Qaida? And how safe would this safe haven be? They could give al-Qaida land for a camp but how would they defend it against predators or US special forces? And does al-Qaida still require large terrorist training camps to organise attacks? Could they not plan in Hamburg and train at flight schools in Florida; or meet in Bradford and build morale on an adventure training course in Wales?
I don't think the Taliban is capable of being a ruling force in Afghanistan anymore. Are we pushing back on something that would fail of it's on accord and do the job we're hoping our military will do (which it won't)

You know where I think it's at ? Women's rights. Get that moving (easier said than done, I agree) and then we'll see change.

Final thoughts, I'm not convinced that "building morale" and "Wales" should be used in the same sentence.....
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Old 27th Jan 2010, 17:46
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How embarrassing, just looked it up - must have been drunk.

Incite, inciting - inciteful is not a word (obviously insightful is)...my bad totally.

I think Stewart tries to write in a manner that will have an effect and can be appreciated by everyone - I can see how this may come across as an amateurish ‘piece of undergrad theses’ to some. I've re-read it and I still think it puts the authors points across in a readable manner but I guess we'll all take from it what we all want to take.
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