Personally I expect there to be a modest pay rise for the military this year.
There are 6 million voters, I mean workers, in the public sector, and the Labour party is not going to miss the chance to give them a bribe, I mean a pay rise, just before an election. Given the situation with the public finances any pay rise will have to be modest, but not so modest it is insulting - no doubt G Brown still remembers the backlash when, as chancellor, he increased old aged pensions by 50p a week.
The AFPRB is not truely independent, if you look at the first few paragraphs of any report they produce they list the constraints they have to work within, the last time it included the governments inflation target and how much extra the MOD could afford!!
It will be the 11/12 annual pay rise that will be non existant or miniscule!