Pace
Do you actually have any idea of the complexity of this industry? That is such an over-simplification that is effectively meaningless.
OK so this is really not a good time at all for the industry. However you basically seem to be assuming that there are only three segments for pilots to work in, 'charter' (I assume you mean GA, rather than the holiday charters like Monarch, who have been known to take pilots from BA), instructing and 'airlines', and that movement is always one way, and the most experienced pilot always gets preference for the job.
There are actually far more distinct sectors than that (GA can be split into at least four distinct markets, depending on how you split, and the airlines can also be split into at least four markets, each of which has different recruitment needs, and each airline in which will have a different recruitment strategy), recruitment is not so simple and the priority does not always go to experience. There is a lot more to consider, but the point is that it is really not as simple (or 'fair' in some cases) as you suggest. A classic example is that I had a CV from a guy with 6000 hours. However he did not even get an interview as I had more suitable candidates who had sufficient if far fewer hours.
There will be recruitment of inexperienced pilots to some jobs well before 2012, probably some next year. It is unlikely to be widespread, and your conclusion that it is unwise to invest in training now might well be supportable (and on balance I would suggest most people wait). However it is not supported by that assessment.