The jury is still out until 5th November, but it certainly looks like its shaping up for 6 weekly returns from Sydney to Nadi. Some selected quotes from the Commision's report included below, with links to the actual report at the bottom of the post.
Perhaps the God of Boeings, commanded that the girls rests on the 7th day
6.24
The Commission considers that competition benefits would be greatest if V Australia was to operate daily B777-300 services and Jetstar four A321-213 services per week.
6.26
The proposed allocation to V Australia of 907 seats is 360 seats less than the 1,267 seats per week it has sought. This allocation is sufficient on its own for V Australia to operate six services per week. To achieve the daily services V Australia wishes to operate, it would be necessary for the Virgin Blue Group to transfer additional capacity from Pacific Blue Australia to V Australia above the 1,260 seats per week currently proposed. The Commission notes that Pacific Blue Australia holds 360 seats per week unused on the Fiji route. The Virgin Blue Group says these seats will enable Pacific Blue Australia to add services to Melbourne and Adelaide in 2010. It would be a matter for the Virgin Group’s commercial judgement as to whether it wished to maintain those plans, or to transfer the capacity to V Australia. As noted, in the absence of the transfer, V Australia could operate six B777-300 services per week, compared with daily services if the capacity is transferred to it.
6.30
The Commission considers that V Australia’s proposal offers considerably greater public benefits than the Qantas plan for Jetstar. This is because the B777-300ER
Determination [2009] IASC 131 and [2009] IASC 132 Page 17 of 21
has the ability to accommodate pallets and containers, offering exporters and importers an alternative to Air Pacific’s B747. The Commission understands that the volume of freight able to be carried on the V Australia aircraft is about 200 cubic metres, or over 20 tonnes by weight. V Australia’s entry with its large capacity and cost efficient aircraft could be expected to bring strong competition on rates as well as additional choice of time of day. As noted above, frequency can be an important factor in freight decisions especially where time sensitive freight, such as perishables, is concerned. Daily services would therefore offer the maximum level of benefits against this criterion.
6.31
By contrast, Jetstar’s A321 aircraft offers very limited freight capability with no container capability. According to Qantas, the aircraft can carry about half a tonne of freight, although this will vary depending upon passenger loads and season of operation.
Update 23 October 2009
On 20 October 2009 the Commission issued Draft Determinations [2009] IASC 131 [
PDF: 177 KB] and [2009] IASC 132 [
PDF: 177 KB] proposing to allocate 907 seats per week to V Australia and 852 seats per week to Qantas. Submissions about the draft determinations are invited. Submissions are due by COB 30 October 2009. The Commission is expected to meet on 5 November 2009 to settle final determinations.